Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.228945 2.352137 2.485358 2.641470 2.821217 3.024062 3.273893
2025-09-21 2.088295 2.242404 2.416039 2.629533 2.890097 3.205399 3.629351
2025-09-28 1.972793 2.141543 2.336708 2.584464 2.899399 3.300756 3.879877
2025-10-05 1.930282 2.118598 2.342331 2.636170 3.026942 3.556161 4.391425
2025-10-12 1.906947 2.114587 2.367641 2.711245 3.189848 3.882443 5.099848
2025-10-19 1.850968 2.065677 2.331582 2.700515 3.230665 4.034889 5.572438
2025-10-26 1.808482 2.030482 2.309657 2.705233 3.291724 4.226619 6.194735
2025-11-02 1.748108 1.969224 2.249658 2.651750 3.258756 4.255507 6.488704
2025-11-09 1.707008 1.930649 2.217220 2.634144 3.277944 4.376573 7.060883
2025-11-16 1.671095 1.897052 2.189381 2.620571 3.301091 4.507926 7.749088
2025-11-23 1.636548 1.863729 2.160072 2.602447 3.314269 4.622043 8.485264
2025-11-30 1.616725 1.848851 2.154967 2.619334 3.386676 4.869531 9.977064
2025-12-07 1.563874 1.789375 2.087173 2.539873 3.290573 4.751287 9.898659
2025-12-14 1.536838 1.763513 2.065140 2.528892 3.312864 4.898045 11.308881
2025-12-21 1.501788 1.725759 2.024918 2.487507 3.277220 4.906461 12.047566
2025-12-28 1.496717 1.728174 2.041283 2.534927 3.406847 5.341902 17.540253
2026-01-04 1.497981 1.739055 2.069953 2.603619 3.585958 5.985339 43.080317
2026-01-11 1.476618 1.717998 2.051271 2.593799 3.610008 6.201770 158.265917
2026-01-18 1.460349 1.703485 2.041550 2.598101 3.663150 6.535039 NaN
2026-01-25 1.430382 1.669108 2.001355 2.549158 3.600535 6.457863 NaN
2026-02-01 1.410586 1.648525 1.981055 2.533020 3.606289 6.629071 NaN
2026-02-08 1.392682 1.630156 1.963460 2.520572 3.618778 6.834188 NaN
2026-02-15 1.374472 1.610932 1.943992 2.503941 3.620578 7.002892 NaN